MY election prediction

This is my prediction for the 2012 election. I'll update it once a week depending on changes with the last one the night before the election. Anyone else want to guess with me. Okay, I can't figure out how to embed the image so you'll have to go to the link.

Right now I have it O - 253 to R - 285

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=FaG

You can share your map via 270 to win it website:

http://www.270towin.com/index.php

Lots of changes in the polls since the 1st Presidential debate. I see the race this way as of today.

Romney 301 - Obama 237

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=HxW

Grits, I just posted this at EB at this link:

http://earthboppin.net/cgi-bin/talkshop.cgi

The singing and music was very good. [Slade - Run Runaway] I like that kind of music much better than the modern, sappy christian music.

I've thought for a long time that Nixon-Reagan-Bush were in tandem with a Glendale, Calif.-Howard Hughes connection. When I was there in the late 1960's, a <b>non-sequitur</b> type of conversation with <b>fixed patterns</b> seemed to characterize their manner of speaking. Later back in the Bay Area I noticed how liberals talked naturally as opposed to Glendale residents. Kind of like the Stepford wives.

If anybody can beat O- (who IMO is buttering the bread of the Wall St. banksters), it might be Romney and the people behind him. IMO, Romney-Ryan make for a much more dynamic duo than Nixon-Agnew. However, Wall St. is a powerful force. The stock market has been going down the last few days, probably because R- seems to be getting the better of the debates.

The Catch-22 is that Wall St. probably wants the US to help Israel attack Iran, which O- seems to be reluctant to do and apparently R- is willing to do. Bush, Jr. had everything set up for an Iran invasion, but when Russia said they would retaliate, Bush hesitated. He remembered how Nixon had said the vietcong was a 4th rate power, but then Russia provided missles and hardware, prolonging the conflict into the 1970's.

I just read how O- might be trying to broker a deal with Iran for them to agree to hold off their plans for developing nuclear capability in exchange for lifting international bank sanctions -- until the Iranian New Year in March.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/obama-cuts-deal-with-iran-over-nukes/
(end of post)

I hope nobody takes offense. I was trying to be objective from personal obervation and current events.

John

Prez. Obama did not get a bump from the last debate with Rasmussen which has a 3 day polling average. Today's numbers are the 1st post debate for all 3 days and they have Romney up by 1. Gallup polls on a 7 day rolling average so they will be hard to judge on the last debate as the next and last debate occurs on Monday, so we'll probably have to wait a full week after the last debate to get their true numbers. Right now Gallup has Romney up by 6 with today's poll due out at noon CST.

Here's how I see the race today:

Romney 301 - Obama 237

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Mtv

Don't believe it when it is said that Romney can't win without Ohio. Putting Ohio on Obama's side in my map would still give Romney 283 electoral votes (270 to win it).

There is still plenty of time for an October surprise and the Iran data John refers to is one that I have seen as a possible surprise although an Iranian news source is denying these reports. It would be to Iran's advantage to keep Obama in office as they can more easily manipulate him.

Barrack Obama's past political history has been to destroy his opponent personally. I am not a huge fan of Romney, but I think at this particular time in history, it would take someone as squeaky clean as he is morally to defeat Obama. Anyone with anything murky in their background would have already been destroyed by Obama's thugs. Romney seems to be the right man for this time in our history. We'll see...

God Bless!
Grits

My guess is Romney with 240.

I'm not seeing FL or PA or OH or MI going to Romney. Unless there gets to be a stunning increase in voter informativeness.

MN may not be entirely Dem, though, like the map on the website shows,so that's another possible 10 votes.

beejean,

I'm pretty sure Romney is going to take Florida. That being said there is a liberal campaign going on there trying to confuse Republican voters by sending them letters saying their registrations are not good.

Florida Republican Party leader receives hoax letter; FBI investigates

...and lots of other dirty tricks flying around in the last two weeks of the race (in VA (fraud exposed) & NC (vote machine tallying votes wrong) for example)...but I guess we can rest assured that the UN will make sure we vote legally...

Texas attorney general warns UN poll watchers to keep their distance

I do think Prez. Obama will take PA, MI is looking better for Romney, but could go Obama, and OH is a toss-up, but I think Romney will squeak it out for OH.

Sticking with my formula, I still have it as before BUT I have a feeling Iowa is going to go against my formula and go for Prez. Obama, so here is my latest take...

Romney 296 Obama 242

NOTE: Maine splits it's electoral votes and I can't show that on the map, but from what I have read Romney will pick up 1 EV there.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=RCG


God Bless!
Grits


Edited because I forgot to subtract one from Prez. Obama.

With one week to go, here is my prediction for the election.

My map shows Romney 301 - Obama 237, but adding the one electoral vote from Maine, my prediction for today is Romney 302 - Obama 236. There is a sleeper state in this race and while I don't think they will go for Obama, it is interesting to note that Oregon is a much closer race than most thought it would be. Prez. Obama is up only about 6 pts. there in some polls. I had to do some special work for the last two days on my job and the lady I worked for lives in Ohio. She says she thinks Romney will take Ohio, for what it's worth.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YtZ

God Bless!
Grits

Here is the way I see it today. I'll put up my FINAL prediction Monday night.

My map shows Romney - 291 to Obama - 247. Adding the one EV from Maine, I see it tonight as Romney - 292 to Obama - 246. There is one state (WI) that polls are going towards Obama in the last day or so, but I believe Romney has a really good chance to win there. PA is always a teaser for the Repubs so even though it is trending towards Romney at the moment, I think it will go to Obama. I have a feeling there might be a "surprise" state for Romney this time...have a few in mind, so we'll see...

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgzO

God Bless!
Grits

Well, here comes my last prediction. I'm going against my prediction method in two states. My prediction method says to give PA to Romney and WI to Obama but my gut says it's just the opposite, so I'm giving PA to Obama and WI to Romney. The state I am most unsure about is IA (with NV running a close second) but even if Romney loses both of those, he still wins!

My FINAL prediction:

Romney 302 to Obama 236

Here is my map not counting the one EV in Maine that should go to Romney:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bplM

I hope and pray I am right!

Just a couple hours away from the 1st votes being counted in Dixville Notch but I will have to check those out in the a.m. I'm too sleepy to stay up for 21 votes...

I pray God grants us reprieve one more time, but if not "keep looking up!"

Well, it looks like me and a lot of other experts (Michael Barone is the main one that comes to mind) were wrong...sadly, wrong...sigh

So now Prez. Obama has four more years to fundamentally transform this country into something it was never intended to be...I never thought being born in the land of the free that I would end up living in a socialist country, but at the end of the next four years that is what I fully expect this country to be...

In 2014 when people see their medical expenses being taxed on their W-2 forms, will they realize they made a mistake? When seniors are no longer able to see the docs they want to see? When our economy is tanked even more than it is now? When we have gas prices go through the roof to promote the green agenda? When coal plants no longer exist and no oil is being drilled? When companies go bankrupt and jobs completely disappear? When muslims are given a "free pass" (workplace violence instead of terrorism)? When Iran acquires their nukes and terrorizes the world?...

...or, is the country just too far gone OR too stupid to realize what just happened?

Oh, Lord, please come quickly...

Grits says " Is this country too far gone..... "

I think it's an excellent question.

Just as the question you had when you mentioned that turning away additional electrical repair bucket trucks is a low thing to do, right unneighborly.

My first thought for blurting out an answer is that -- there are presently "No Go" zones in the New York/ New Jersey area. It's unsafe to go to certain locales. Burnt out hulks of stripped vehicles used to line the Bronx Expressway. There are other places that are like that now over a wider area.

So, it is very far gone. Up here in the Northeast, it's not safe to assume you are safe. To go vote, I had to park at my church, walk past two high-rise Housing projects and a laundramat and get into a tiny dilapidted fire station, with a lot of drive by "businessmen" going up and down the street, and enduring a lot of gawking by people considering if I would be easy to mug or hard to mug based on weight and gait.

Around here there are many many hard-core gangs like the Crips and other ones and they are making the area like a war-torn street scene when any average person starts walking around. One of my sons has been beaten severely twice on the steets here. So, yes, there is such a dramatic shift in the people who run the streets that your basic survival and patroling senses come into play. And we're not even the most crime-ridden metropolitan center in the 30 mile radius.

If you ever come up to visit us here in Massachusetts, do not leave your street sense behind because of the National Park rangers lulling you into some historical past days nostalgia ! You can see that things are really being controlled in a dangerous fashion in these populations centers.

Now, as for the other idea that you have about Obama getting in-- you are already doing the most healthy thing for your soul by getting the daily promises from the Bible out and meditating on their meaning. You are a great soul ! Don't lose your perseverance over this long stretch of lack of justice in our government. There may be frightening situations to face but in the face of each, pray constantly for the aid of your guardian angel and the aid of Christ. Keep your chin up, Grits! You have a lot of Grit.

Oh, my! Telling me about where you live makes me so sad...

I can't imagine having to live in fear like that. We have a very, very low crime rate where I live (it happens more now than before but is still rare). It's worse in Montgomery where my son lives and I am always cautioning him but he thinks he is indestructible (the young...sigh).

The one thing about last night's election that has most conservatives very puzzled is the low voter turnout on the Republican side. Prez. Obama lost about 9 million voters from 2008 and the Republicans were down over 2 million so voter turnout was low this time according to the votes, BUT I had a very slow day at work yesterday and was monitoring on the net all the reports coming in from various states about HIGH turnout. I was very optimistic heading into the election last night as I had read numerous reports about high turnouts in conservative areas, so to see the vote totals so low is a bit mystifying...

My tiny town's population in the town area is only about 5000, but my voting place includes some of the area outside city limits and I was voter number 1144. The poll worker told me that she felt voter turnout in my voting place was up about 50% and I could believe it because I know in the last election (which was only for an amendment), I was voter #405. In the town I work in, voter turnout was up about 30% and they had to send to Birmingham twice for more ballots...so something doesn't smell right to me about those numbers. Isn't this the year we were to start having a foreign company tally our ballots?

Anyway, I don't know what happened as all the trends were trending toward Romney, but we have what we have...and God has allowed it, so we just have to deal with it.

Yes, something like this will either drive someone away from God or bring them closer. I took a vacation day today and I have been in prayer and thinking about all of this all day. I even just got through rejoining up at a Christian messageboard that I used to practically live at and haven't visited in quite a long time. I'll probably be hanging out there quite a bit for the next four years (if we have that long).

Glad you enjoy the Bible promises. They are usually how I start my day and I think about them all through the day.

Well, this election changes my life plans in major ways. I am very worried about what will happen to my 401-K which is all I have for retirement. If it looks like the economy is about to collapse, I will cash it out and pay penalties rather than lose it all...

Lots to think about in the coming days, but always remember that God is in control and nothing is a surprise to Him, so this is all in His plan.

God Bless!
Grits