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Hi All. Petra and I are going to have some fun with USGS and maybe one or two other organizations.
The following came from a Southern California public Radio
California saw a rise in quake awareness and retrofitting after the state recorded a series of major temblors over seven years: Whittier in 1987, Loma Prieta in 1989 and Northridge in 1994.
But there hasn't been a devastating temblor in the state since the Northridge quake, and experts are concerned that quake preparedness may have declined in recent years, the Los Angeles Times reported.
A recent survey by the Norman Lear Center at USC found that even those who have received earthquake education are not as prepared as they should be, the newspaper reported.
California has tried to raise awareness of quake dangers by holding an annual drill called the Great California ShakeOut. The first year, in 2008, thousands of participants played out what would happen in the event that a magnitude 7.8 quake struck along the San Andreas fault.
But the USC survey found that the majority of those participants still were not fully prepared for a quake and many have had inaccurate or out-of-date information about what to do in the event of a major temblor, according to The Times.
Many Southern Californians grew up with information that is now outdated. A suggestion to take cover under a doorway, once fairly common, is now considered applicable only to people in adobe structures.
Long-term concerns: Over the past three centuries, earthquakes comparable to or stronger than the recent one have struck Haiti at least four times, including those in 1751 and 1770 that destroyed Port-au-Prince.
For many years we have all heard that a major quake is likely to occur in California in the next 30. Petra and I learned that was not based on any scientific data, but the on the average number of years it takes a family to pay of the mortgage on there homes. Also Petra and I read and we found it could be interpret in a number of different ways. One way was that we had 30 years before a major quake was going to occur. Petra took Chip to task and got them reword their statement. It now said a major quake could occur between now and 2032.
Now we find that has changed. What is being said now is even close to the original statement so we thought it was time to send out to some of our contacts if what has been said is accurate, or someone misspoke, or just didn't what in the hell they were saying.
Snip:
“We have estimated the probabilities of a future large earthquake on the Enriquillo fault. These estimates are based on techniques developed for earthquake hazard assessments in the United States. Our estimates indicate a probability range of 5 percent to 15 percent, less than one chance in six, for an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Enriquillo fault near Port-au-Prince during the next 50 years. The range of probabilities is due to uncertainties in our current understanding of the seismicity and tectonics of the region. Further study of the historical seismicity and the geological characteristics of the Enriquillo fault zone will help to reduce the uncertainty.”
“For comparison, the probability of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake within the next 50 years on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault in the eastern portion of the San Francisco Bay region of California is about 15 percent.”
As you can see they are saying there is a 15% chance of a major quake on Rodgers Creek fault and or the Hayward fault. I pretty sure we will get an answer from at least two of those we contacted. Not sure about the others. I already know one of them is going to say. To hell with their probabilities. The darn thing could occur tomorrow while we sit around with our head in a place that if we ever sat down quickly we could break our necks.
Yes indeed it is going to be very interesting to see what kind of reply's we get. Take Care...Don the old crap disturber.
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article_pf.asp?ID=2413
The following came from a Southern California public Radio
California saw a rise in quake awareness and retrofitting after the state recorded a series of major temblors over seven years: Whittier in 1987, Loma Prieta in 1989 and Northridge in 1994.
But there hasn't been a devastating temblor in the state since the Northridge quake, and experts are concerned that quake preparedness may have declined in recent years, the Los Angeles Times reported.
A recent survey by the Norman Lear Center at USC found that even those who have received earthquake education are not as prepared as they should be, the newspaper reported.
California has tried to raise awareness of quake dangers by holding an annual drill called the Great California ShakeOut. The first year, in 2008, thousands of participants played out what would happen in the event that a magnitude 7.8 quake struck along the San Andreas fault.
But the USC survey found that the majority of those participants still were not fully prepared for a quake and many have had inaccurate or out-of-date information about what to do in the event of a major temblor, according to The Times.
Many Southern Californians grew up with information that is now outdated. A suggestion to take cover under a doorway, once fairly common, is now considered applicable only to people in adobe structures.
Long-term concerns: Over the past three centuries, earthquakes comparable to or stronger than the recent one have struck Haiti at least four times, including those in 1751 and 1770 that destroyed Port-au-Prince.
For many years we have all heard that a major quake is likely to occur in California in the next 30. Petra and I learned that was not based on any scientific data, but the on the average number of years it takes a family to pay of the mortgage on there homes. Also Petra and I read and we found it could be interpret in a number of different ways. One way was that we had 30 years before a major quake was going to occur. Petra took Chip to task and got them reword their statement. It now said a major quake could occur between now and 2032.
Now we find that has changed. What is being said now is even close to the original statement so we thought it was time to send out to some of our contacts if what has been said is accurate, or someone misspoke, or just didn't what in the hell they were saying.
Snip:
“We have estimated the probabilities of a future large earthquake on the Enriquillo fault. These estimates are based on techniques developed for earthquake hazard assessments in the United States. Our estimates indicate a probability range of 5 percent to 15 percent, less than one chance in six, for an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Enriquillo fault near Port-au-Prince during the next 50 years. The range of probabilities is due to uncertainties in our current understanding of the seismicity and tectonics of the region. Further study of the historical seismicity and the geological characteristics of the Enriquillo fault zone will help to reduce the uncertainty.”
“For comparison, the probability of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake within the next 50 years on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault in the eastern portion of the San Francisco Bay region of California is about 15 percent.”
As you can see they are saying there is a 15% chance of a major quake on Rodgers Creek fault and or the Hayward fault. I pretty sure we will get an answer from at least two of those we contacted. Not sure about the others. I already know one of them is going to say. To hell with their probabilities. The darn thing could occur tomorrow while we sit around with our head in a place that if we ever sat down quickly we could break our necks.
Yes indeed it is going to be very interesting to see what kind of reply's we get. Take Care...Don the old crap disturber.
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article_pf.asp?ID=2413
