Hi All. The Baja quake wasn't really a surprise. Petra, I and a few others have been waiting for it. We knew it was going to occur, or that there was a good chance that it would occur, we just didn't know the when.
The Baja quake is a little unusual. It was a pure normal quake meaning the first motion was down. The closest fault to this quake is the Laguna Salada fault which is the southern most segment of the Elsinore fault. This fault is a right lateral strike slip fault. You don't get normal quakes on strike slip faults so either the fault has been misidentified or the “moment tensor solution” is incorrect. I would love to see other “moment tensor solutions” but so far there haven't been any.
It appears most of the energy from the quake has gone to the north as there are very few quakes to the south of the epicenter. I also have some doubts about the quakes being aftershocks. From the faults that appear to have been affected by the quake they appear to be triggered quakes. I know a lot of seismologists are not going to agree with me, but that is okay. There are a lot of seismologists I don't agree with. It is something I have gotten use to. One nice thing about our difference is that we can share them over a cup or cups of coffee and not shout at one another, call one another names, or put one another down. We also have some good laughs. In other words we have a good time disagreeing and agreeing with one another.
The faults affected appear to be the Laguna Salada fault, Elsinore fault, the San Jacjnto fault, San Andreas fault and the Superstition Mountain section of the Elsinore fault for an area of activity 183 miles long by 112 miles wide with most of the activity in the center of the pattern associated with the Elsinore fault. This by no means rules out any of the other faults to have a major quake of which any ones guess is as good as another.
If the main event is indeed a normal quake then the Eastern California Shear Zone/Walker Lane Belt could be in for some activity which could be attention getting. That is something were just going to have to wait and see.
The other odd thing about this quake is that there is very little activity south of the epicenter. This could mean that the rupture was mainly to the north with most of the energy going to the north. That could account for why there are so many quakes north of the main event.
As you can see from the map the quakes are quite spread out. Some of the larger quakes date back to around 1934, but the majority of them are from the latest event. You can use the ANSS map to map your own quake map, which I'm sure will not look anything like this one. I never count the number of quakes, but do look for where they cluster at. This will give you an idea as to the weak areas. Also lines of quakes could identify the location of a fault if the fault isn't already known to the there.
Another thing I found interesting is that there is the main event with a small gap between in and the beginning of the Laguna Salada fault. Of course that gap could be gone by morning. It could also mean that what ever caused the quake was so large that it was destroyed to the point that no quake could occur there.
Quakes are marvelous. What you learn from one may not apply to any other quake that occurs. They always keep you guessing.
Could this quake trigger a larger quake further to the north? It most certainly could. It could do it tomorrow, next week, or next year or longer. It could trigger it on a fault everyone is looking at, or a fault no one thought of.
To give you a rough idea what were working on and looking at click on the link and look at Lowell's blog. It won't tell you what it is were working on and using, but it will give you a rough idea. It could be a site you may want to keep tabs on. Most of it is general information, but there are times specials come out. Research has been on going for more then 10 years. Some of you may recall I said 2010 could be a rough year. Lowell's blog will tell you why. Give Petra time to get it posted. We have had very little sleep in the last 48 hours or more and that can make the brain a little fuzzy.
Could it trigger a quake in the Bay Area? It could, but there other factors that could trigger the quake. Those will be present on 04/14/2010 however the probability is only 26%. However we expect Southern California will go before the Bay Area does. As to the when. That is the $64.00 question. Take Care...Don
http://quakecentralforecasting.com/index.html
https://2img.net/h/i5.photobucket.com/albums/y151/Quakemeister/3BajaQuake72M2010-04-05.jpg?t=1270507325
The Baja quake is a little unusual. It was a pure normal quake meaning the first motion was down. The closest fault to this quake is the Laguna Salada fault which is the southern most segment of the Elsinore fault. This fault is a right lateral strike slip fault. You don't get normal quakes on strike slip faults so either the fault has been misidentified or the “moment tensor solution” is incorrect. I would love to see other “moment tensor solutions” but so far there haven't been any.
It appears most of the energy from the quake has gone to the north as there are very few quakes to the south of the epicenter. I also have some doubts about the quakes being aftershocks. From the faults that appear to have been affected by the quake they appear to be triggered quakes. I know a lot of seismologists are not going to agree with me, but that is okay. There are a lot of seismologists I don't agree with. It is something I have gotten use to. One nice thing about our difference is that we can share them over a cup or cups of coffee and not shout at one another, call one another names, or put one another down. We also have some good laughs. In other words we have a good time disagreeing and agreeing with one another.
The faults affected appear to be the Laguna Salada fault, Elsinore fault, the San Jacjnto fault, San Andreas fault and the Superstition Mountain section of the Elsinore fault for an area of activity 183 miles long by 112 miles wide with most of the activity in the center of the pattern associated with the Elsinore fault. This by no means rules out any of the other faults to have a major quake of which any ones guess is as good as another.
If the main event is indeed a normal quake then the Eastern California Shear Zone/Walker Lane Belt could be in for some activity which could be attention getting. That is something were just going to have to wait and see.
The other odd thing about this quake is that there is very little activity south of the epicenter. This could mean that the rupture was mainly to the north with most of the energy going to the north. That could account for why there are so many quakes north of the main event.
As you can see from the map the quakes are quite spread out. Some of the larger quakes date back to around 1934, but the majority of them are from the latest event. You can use the ANSS map to map your own quake map, which I'm sure will not look anything like this one. I never count the number of quakes, but do look for where they cluster at. This will give you an idea as to the weak areas. Also lines of quakes could identify the location of a fault if the fault isn't already known to the there.
Another thing I found interesting is that there is the main event with a small gap between in and the beginning of the Laguna Salada fault. Of course that gap could be gone by morning. It could also mean that what ever caused the quake was so large that it was destroyed to the point that no quake could occur there.
Quakes are marvelous. What you learn from one may not apply to any other quake that occurs. They always keep you guessing.
Could this quake trigger a larger quake further to the north? It most certainly could. It could do it tomorrow, next week, or next year or longer. It could trigger it on a fault everyone is looking at, or a fault no one thought of.
To give you a rough idea what were working on and looking at click on the link and look at Lowell's blog. It won't tell you what it is were working on and using, but it will give you a rough idea. It could be a site you may want to keep tabs on. Most of it is general information, but there are times specials come out. Research has been on going for more then 10 years. Some of you may recall I said 2010 could be a rough year. Lowell's blog will tell you why. Give Petra time to get it posted. We have had very little sleep in the last 48 hours or more and that can make the brain a little fuzzy.
Could it trigger a quake in the Bay Area? It could, but there other factors that could trigger the quake. Those will be present on 04/14/2010 however the probability is only 26%. However we expect Southern California will go before the Bay Area does. As to the when. That is the $64.00 question. Take Care...Don
http://quakecentralforecasting.com/index.html
https://2img.net/h/i5.photobucket.com/albums/y151/Quakemeister/3BajaQuake72M2010-04-05.jpg?t=1270507325