Calibabe Tue 23 Feb 2010, 10:49 pm
geenee wrote: Vim/PA wrote:Thanks for the input.
Just looked up the etymology of Thursday.
It comes from Thor's Day.
Thor is germanic/norse 'god of thunder'.
Well that sure fits with Hurricane storm etc.
Bouncy guy here is my favorite!
I pulled this off a financial site that I currently watch. If even 10% of what this person thinks will happen we are in big doo big time:
"that we are already in a great depression. Harry just assumed that the sucker's rally that started in March 2009 would replicate that of the sucker's rally in 1930 and would die down by the fall of 2009. But as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book Irrational Exuberance, our price earnings ratios and the duration of our bull market far surpass that of the 1920's. In other words, we have more people and more money with a longer bull market, so demographically, you would expect the top to take longer and for it to take longer for this to unravel. If in 1930 you had a 6 month sucker's rally after a 10 year boom crash cycle, in our case, you might have a 1 year sucker's rally after a 25 year boom crash cycle. And instead of a 10 year great depression, it may take 20 years to get out of this mess. The bigger you are, the harder you fall. It doesn't necessarily mean you fall faster. This will be a slow, knife turning in the stomach downturn. Certainly, 2010 is not going to be pretty, and a stock market correction is likely sometime this year. I think the banks will be in super trouble come October 2010. So for now, I'm just holding steady in my short position. There are not enough jobs being created to keep up with high school and college graduates seeking new work each year, so even if we don't lose jobs in a given month, our unemployment rate will go up to 11% later this year no matter what we do. And that's the "cooked" number. The real unemployment rate, if you add in self-employed that earn no money but don't qualify for benefits, is already approaching 20%. And how about wages of existing workers? Most of them are shifting to part time work or lower wages and reduced benefits. This means less money to spend across the board. And the banks are not lending, so even if a big order comes, few businesses will have the financing to fill it. In other words, the record "profits" and beating of reduced earnings estimates is all fiction based on firing workers. The top line sales of most companies is in the toilet. People have to be patient in terms of the market crashing. This bull market took longer and the Fed pulled more strings than Benjamin Strong could have possibly done so it will take longer for the deleveraging to unfold. But deleverage it will. The "new normal" is to spend as little as possible. I'm 38 and I'm even hearing younger kids talk about the economy and how there is no money to buy stuff. There is a new dialogue, and a new psychology emerging in which banktruptcy and foreclosure are no longer seen as embarassing but as pragmatic. That will not bode well for banks in the 2 years ahead."
Gosh, that is so not pretty. That garden is starting to look better and better. Also thinking about buying a larger freezer and possibly looking at doing canning of veggies. Maybe this is what all the unrest or uneasyness is that many of us have been feeling for so long.