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    The East Pacific Rise And California


    Don in Hollister

    Posts : 137
    Join date : 2010-02-17
    Age : 83
    Location : Hollister, California

    The East Pacific Rise And California

    Post  Don in Hollister on Wed 15 Sep 2010, 5:59 am

    Hi All. The following is from the Nature science journal.

    “East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimeters a year), predominately aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.”

    I can't help but wonder how long it is going to take for all the stress that is being released at the site of the quakes to trigger quakes in California and other locations along the west coast. That stress just doesn't dissolve into nothing. It moves along getting closer and closer to California until one day the quake everyone is waiting for occurs be it on the San Andreas fault or some other fault.

    Keep in mind the quake doesn't have to occur at the very southern end of California it could occur further north in the heart of Southern California. It doesn't necessary have to occur on the San Andreas fault, but on another fault much closer to densely populated areas. It doesn't even have to be a real large quake. All it needs to do is occur at the wrong time at the wrong location. That is all it really needs. Just the wrong time at the wrong location. Think about it. Are you ready? Take Care...Don
    marc / berkeley

    Posts : 41
    Join date : 2010-02-22

    Re: The East Pacific Rise And California

    Post  marc / berkeley on Wed 15 Sep 2010, 7:46 pm

    Hi Don!

    Wow, that Nature Journal statement on the Eastern Pacific Rise pretty much says "it's all up for grabs up to a M6.5?" Many foreshocks, few aftershocks equals short notice; an almost volcano-esque behavior...BUT unexplainable movement (aseismic slip being, well, aseismic) according to the usual strike slip models, with no way to truly monitor stress buildup for the transverse faults.

    Even 10 cm movement/yr can't be modeled into a workable framework for prediction....That's (if you'll pardon the pun) pretty deep Don.

    That means that underwater contributions to stress/strain are useless because of the extra elasticity of the water contribution intermixing into the outer mantle.

    We need to model on rubber then - to get new cooefficients of friction, just as a starting point.

    Can you say "Rubber Mantle Boundary Bumpers" 5 times real fast?

    I wonder than if the propagation onto land would produce noticable effects at lower levels......say starting with tidal triggers and working upto underwater events....could be a doctoral in it....should someone ever want to do this...

    We've seen the Diurnal Tidal triggers...

    o well, time for lunch!


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