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Hi All. This study is about 4 years old so what ever conclusions they reached can be put aside due to the most recent Baja quake. For the first week or so most of the quakes were aftershocks, but I believe most of the quakes were seeing now are triggered quakes with some aftershocks from some of the larger triggered quakes.
Snip:
“Major Earthquake Due to Hit Southern California, Study Says”
“Get ready for the Big One.
John Roach for National Geographic News
June 21, 2006”
“About 300 years of pent-up stress in southern California is sufficient to trigger a catastrophic earthquake on the San Andreas Fault system, according to a new study.”
“The fault is notorious for major earthquakes, including the 1906 earthquake that reduced the San Francisco Bay Area to piles of smoldering rubble, but the 100-mile (160-kilometer) southern section of the fault, which runs south from San Bernardino to the east of Los Angeles and San Diego, has remained eerily quiet for nearly three centuries.”
“Now, scientists believe, the fault is ready to rumble.”
"It is fully charged for the next big event," said Yuri Fialko, a geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California.”
"When the event will occur, we cannot tell," he continued.”
"It could be tomorrow or 20 years from now, but it appears unlikely the fault can take another few hundred years of slow strain accumulation."
“Over the past 300 years, energy equivalent to 20 to 26 feet (6 to 8 meters) of slip has accumulated below the locked part of the southern San Andreas Fault, according to Fialko.”
"This is an indication the fault is storing significant elastic strain, and the amount of strain is equivalent to a major earthquake," he said.
“According to Zoback, the amount of strain Fialko's calculations show is at the high end of estimates obtained from other research using different methods.”
"That's like being ten months pregnant—past all reasonable estimates of when it should go," she said.”
“Zoback adds that an increase in earthquake activity in southern California over the past several decades may indicate the main fault is ready to rupture.”
“A similar increase in earthquake activity occurred on the northern section of the fault in the 70 years prior to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, she notes.”
"We may be seeing something similar," she said.”
“Moderate temblors—including 1994's magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles—may be a sign that tectonic stress in the region is reaching a breaking point, according to Zoback.”
“And if the Big One hits, what are the consequences?”
“Unlike the northern section of the San Andreas Fault, which slices through the middle of the heavily populated San Francisco Bay Area, the southern section of the fault passes through mostly uninhabited desert, Zoback says.”
“However, computer simulations show that a southern California earthquake that ruptures toward the north could be devastating. The energy from an earthquake is focused in the direction of the rupture, Fialko explains.”
“For an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 to 8 that ruptures east of San Diego toward San Bernardino, the "shaking in Los Angeles would be extremely strong and extensive," he said.”
Snip: LA Times
“California sees increase in earthquakes; seismologists fight Twitter rumors April 13, 2010 | 11:45 am”
“Seismologists in California were busy this week fighting rumors apparently floating on Twitter that a major earthquake was likely in the next few days.”
“Officials at Caltech say that rumor is not true -- and that no such prediction can be made.”
Snip: Fox News
“In light of the magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck Mexico's Baja California on Sunday and the continuing aftershocks, nervous residents are worrying over these questions and wondering about the seismic future of the Sunshine State.”
“In 1960 a 9.5 quake struck Chile, the most powerful ever recorded. In 1964, a 9.2 hit in Alaska. California isn't likely to register a quake of that magnitude, but "the big one" still could be destructive.”
"We probably don't have faults large enough to generate an 8.0 except in the very northern part of the state, off Mendicino -- the Cascadia subduction zone," explains California state geologist Dr. John Parrish. That fault line runs from Northern California up to Vancouver, and it has probably generated big ones in the past.”
"In fact, we think there was a greater-than-8 quake in 1700, which generated a sea wave called a tsunami when it hit Japan," he said. Still, anything larger than a 5 has the power to cause structural damage, he explained.”
Snip: Az Daily Sun
“LOS ANGELES -- If Southern Californians have been feeling more shaking this year, it's not their imaginations.”
“The number of earthquakes greater than magnitude 4.0 in Southern California and Baja California has increased significantly in 2010. There have been 70 such quakes so far this year, the most of any year in the last decade. And it's only April. There were 30 in 2009 and 29 in 2008.”
“Seismologists said they are studying the uptick but cannot fully explain it. Major earthquakes tend to occur in cycles, and experts have said the region in recent years has been in a quiet cycle when it comes to sizable temblors.”
“The string of quakes this year raises the possibility that Southern California might again be entering a more active seismic period. Scientists said the increase does not mean the Big One is any more imminent, but it could mean more significant quakes are on the way. Egill Hauksson, a geophysicist at Caltech, said the rate of quakes in the region is "probably ... picking up again" after a relative lull that lasted more than a decade. "What it means is that we are going to have more earthquakes than in the average year. With more earthquakes, we're bound to have more bigger ones. But there are always fewer of those than the smaller ones."
“Scientists, however, have not been able to identify reasons that fully explain the increase.”
"We would like to be able to explain it," said Kate Hutton, a seismologist at Caltech. "But there's no real correlation with any cause."
“Many of the earthquakes this year have been aftershocks to the 7.2 temblor that rattled the Mexicali area earlier this month. The border region had experienced a swarm of smaller quakes before the big one. And there have been more than 1,000 aftershocks, including more than a dozen that registered higher than 5.0.”
“The Mexicali quake was the region's largest in nearly two decades -- since the 7.3 Landers quake in the Mojave Desert in 1992. Despite their size, neither temblor did catastrophic damage because they occurred in relatively remote areas far from major population centers.”
“The Landers quake occurred during a particularly active seismic period in the Los Angeles area. Between 1987 and 1994, the region experienced five major quakes. In addition to Landers, there were the Whittier Narrows quake (which killed eight people), temblors in Big Bear and Joshua Tree, and the Northridge quake, which killed 57 people, injured 4, 500 and caused about $40 billion in damage. Beginning in the late 1990s, however, the number of memorably large quakes subsided. Experts are not sure the reason for the cycles; they say said one possibility is that the ups and downs are random. Another possibility: a "cascade effect" in which a quake on one fault changes the stresses on another.”
"If that fault is ready to produce an earthquake anyway, it might do something. But it would have to be pretty close" for that to happen, Hutton said.”
When you look at the locations of the faults in the LA Basin you can see it wouldn't take very much to trigger at least 5 faults. As to the magnitudes that's anyone's guess. One quake weakens the building the next one starts it on its way down and the remaining quakes finish it off. What have you got left. One big costly mess in terms of dollars and lives. The dollars can be replaced, but the lives can't. It may not happen that way. There may be only one quake, but at the right location and the right time of day that's all you would need.
Get yourself an earthquake kit. You can buy one or make one from the material you already have in your kitchen and garage. The internet is full of kits you can buy and hints on how to make one of your own. In my case I had to rebuild mine as I can no longer carry it on my back such as you would carry a back pack. Two heart attacks, bad back and legs have seen to that so I now have one on wheels. You see people using them everywhere when they travel. Some people call them suitcases. Mine is now an earthquake survival kit. I have everything in it that I had in the other one plus a little extra room. I don't have to carry it. I just pull the handle out and pull it along behind me. I'm making one up for the better half, but were having a little trouble. She doesn't know what color she wants. I think I will buy a fire engine red one. That way she won't have much trouble finding it. Of course I will paint some kind of design on it as I'm sure there will be others just like it. If you do buy one get one with large wheels and made of rubber and a good sturdy frame work. They cost a little more, but remember you could be carrying your life in it. Take Care...Don
http://showme.net/~fkeller/quake/lib/andreas1.htm
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/04/california-sees-increase-in-earthquake-sesimologists-fight-twitter-rumors.html
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/04/05/doomsday-number-california-earthquake-zone/
http://azdailysun.com/news/national/article_6740e047-69e8-59d8-a0a9-9d8f83a81147.html
Snip:
“Major Earthquake Due to Hit Southern California, Study Says”
“Get ready for the Big One.
John Roach for National Geographic News
June 21, 2006”
“About 300 years of pent-up stress in southern California is sufficient to trigger a catastrophic earthquake on the San Andreas Fault system, according to a new study.”
“The fault is notorious for major earthquakes, including the 1906 earthquake that reduced the San Francisco Bay Area to piles of smoldering rubble, but the 100-mile (160-kilometer) southern section of the fault, which runs south from San Bernardino to the east of Los Angeles and San Diego, has remained eerily quiet for nearly three centuries.”
“Now, scientists believe, the fault is ready to rumble.”
"It is fully charged for the next big event," said Yuri Fialko, a geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California.”
"When the event will occur, we cannot tell," he continued.”
"It could be tomorrow or 20 years from now, but it appears unlikely the fault can take another few hundred years of slow strain accumulation."
“Over the past 300 years, energy equivalent to 20 to 26 feet (6 to 8 meters) of slip has accumulated below the locked part of the southern San Andreas Fault, according to Fialko.”
"This is an indication the fault is storing significant elastic strain, and the amount of strain is equivalent to a major earthquake," he said.
“According to Zoback, the amount of strain Fialko's calculations show is at the high end of estimates obtained from other research using different methods.”
"That's like being ten months pregnant—past all reasonable estimates of when it should go," she said.”
“Zoback adds that an increase in earthquake activity in southern California over the past several decades may indicate the main fault is ready to rupture.”
“A similar increase in earthquake activity occurred on the northern section of the fault in the 70 years prior to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, she notes.”
"We may be seeing something similar," she said.”
“Moderate temblors—including 1994's magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles—may be a sign that tectonic stress in the region is reaching a breaking point, according to Zoback.”
“And if the Big One hits, what are the consequences?”
“Unlike the northern section of the San Andreas Fault, which slices through the middle of the heavily populated San Francisco Bay Area, the southern section of the fault passes through mostly uninhabited desert, Zoback says.”
“However, computer simulations show that a southern California earthquake that ruptures toward the north could be devastating. The energy from an earthquake is focused in the direction of the rupture, Fialko explains.”
“For an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 to 8 that ruptures east of San Diego toward San Bernardino, the "shaking in Los Angeles would be extremely strong and extensive," he said.”
Snip: LA Times
“California sees increase in earthquakes; seismologists fight Twitter rumors April 13, 2010 | 11:45 am”
“Seismologists in California were busy this week fighting rumors apparently floating on Twitter that a major earthquake was likely in the next few days.”
“Officials at Caltech say that rumor is not true -- and that no such prediction can be made.”
Snip: Fox News
“In light of the magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck Mexico's Baja California on Sunday and the continuing aftershocks, nervous residents are worrying over these questions and wondering about the seismic future of the Sunshine State.”
“In 1960 a 9.5 quake struck Chile, the most powerful ever recorded. In 1964, a 9.2 hit in Alaska. California isn't likely to register a quake of that magnitude, but "the big one" still could be destructive.”
"We probably don't have faults large enough to generate an 8.0 except in the very northern part of the state, off Mendicino -- the Cascadia subduction zone," explains California state geologist Dr. John Parrish. That fault line runs from Northern California up to Vancouver, and it has probably generated big ones in the past.”
"In fact, we think there was a greater-than-8 quake in 1700, which generated a sea wave called a tsunami when it hit Japan," he said. Still, anything larger than a 5 has the power to cause structural damage, he explained.”
Snip: Az Daily Sun
“LOS ANGELES -- If Southern Californians have been feeling more shaking this year, it's not their imaginations.”
“The number of earthquakes greater than magnitude 4.0 in Southern California and Baja California has increased significantly in 2010. There have been 70 such quakes so far this year, the most of any year in the last decade. And it's only April. There were 30 in 2009 and 29 in 2008.”
“Seismologists said they are studying the uptick but cannot fully explain it. Major earthquakes tend to occur in cycles, and experts have said the region in recent years has been in a quiet cycle when it comes to sizable temblors.”
“The string of quakes this year raises the possibility that Southern California might again be entering a more active seismic period. Scientists said the increase does not mean the Big One is any more imminent, but it could mean more significant quakes are on the way. Egill Hauksson, a geophysicist at Caltech, said the rate of quakes in the region is "probably ... picking up again" after a relative lull that lasted more than a decade. "What it means is that we are going to have more earthquakes than in the average year. With more earthquakes, we're bound to have more bigger ones. But there are always fewer of those than the smaller ones."
“Scientists, however, have not been able to identify reasons that fully explain the increase.”
"We would like to be able to explain it," said Kate Hutton, a seismologist at Caltech. "But there's no real correlation with any cause."
“Many of the earthquakes this year have been aftershocks to the 7.2 temblor that rattled the Mexicali area earlier this month. The border region had experienced a swarm of smaller quakes before the big one. And there have been more than 1,000 aftershocks, including more than a dozen that registered higher than 5.0.”
“The Mexicali quake was the region's largest in nearly two decades -- since the 7.3 Landers quake in the Mojave Desert in 1992. Despite their size, neither temblor did catastrophic damage because they occurred in relatively remote areas far from major population centers.”
“The Landers quake occurred during a particularly active seismic period in the Los Angeles area. Between 1987 and 1994, the region experienced five major quakes. In addition to Landers, there were the Whittier Narrows quake (which killed eight people), temblors in Big Bear and Joshua Tree, and the Northridge quake, which killed 57 people, injured 4, 500 and caused about $40 billion in damage. Beginning in the late 1990s, however, the number of memorably large quakes subsided. Experts are not sure the reason for the cycles; they say said one possibility is that the ups and downs are random. Another possibility: a "cascade effect" in which a quake on one fault changes the stresses on another.”
"If that fault is ready to produce an earthquake anyway, it might do something. But it would have to be pretty close" for that to happen, Hutton said.”
When you look at the locations of the faults in the LA Basin you can see it wouldn't take very much to trigger at least 5 faults. As to the magnitudes that's anyone's guess. One quake weakens the building the next one starts it on its way down and the remaining quakes finish it off. What have you got left. One big costly mess in terms of dollars and lives. The dollars can be replaced, but the lives can't. It may not happen that way. There may be only one quake, but at the right location and the right time of day that's all you would need.
Get yourself an earthquake kit. You can buy one or make one from the material you already have in your kitchen and garage. The internet is full of kits you can buy and hints on how to make one of your own. In my case I had to rebuild mine as I can no longer carry it on my back such as you would carry a back pack. Two heart attacks, bad back and legs have seen to that so I now have one on wheels. You see people using them everywhere when they travel. Some people call them suitcases. Mine is now an earthquake survival kit. I have everything in it that I had in the other one plus a little extra room. I don't have to carry it. I just pull the handle out and pull it along behind me. I'm making one up for the better half, but were having a little trouble. She doesn't know what color she wants. I think I will buy a fire engine red one. That way she won't have much trouble finding it. Of course I will paint some kind of design on it as I'm sure there will be others just like it. If you do buy one get one with large wheels and made of rubber and a good sturdy frame work. They cost a little more, but remember you could be carrying your life in it. Take Care...Don
http://showme.net/~fkeller/quake/lib/andreas1.htm
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/04/california-sees-increase-in-earthquake-sesimologists-fight-twitter-rumors.html
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/04/05/doomsday-number-california-earthquake-zone/
http://azdailysun.com/news/national/article_6740e047-69e8-59d8-a0a9-9d8f83a81147.html
